First off let's get through this week's games. 

No big upsets this week.  The big surprise was the tie between Testudos Revenge and The Fightin' Bitin' Beavers, 53-53.  The Beavers needed a big night from Matt Breida and got it, but then lost the lead when Landon Collins picked up the last two tackles of the game.  

There was a minor upset as the Fighting Squirrels posted thier best game of the season to beat the Gallic Warriors 72-29.  Ending their 8 game losing streak.  Trump Molests Collies survived their worst game of the season to beat the Richard Lionhearts, 34-22.  

The Sacks on the Beach beat the Crusaders, 39-8.  The MeggaMen won against the Amish Electricians 64-4.  And the Norsemen extended thier division lead to two games with a 60-40 win over Sean Taylor's Ashes.

Playoff Scenarios

• Amish Electricians were eliminated from playoff contention this week
• Fighting Squirrels were eliminated from playoff contention this week
• Gallic Warriors will be eliminated with a loss this week or a Sacks win
• Crusaders will be eliminated with a loss this week or a Sacks win
• Trump Molests Collies will clinch #1 seed with a win and a Beaver loss or tie
• Fightin' Bitin' Beavers will clinch a playoff spot with a win and losses or ties by both STA and Lionhearts

Playoff Odds

Toilet Bowl Odds

Undefeated odds

Regular Season Only - 15%

Including Playoffs - 6%

Those odds are generated from simulating 1000 seasons with winning chances based on the scores a team has posted up to this point in the season.  

The one thing that jumped out and surprised me was that the odds of Trump Molests Collies going undefeated dropped this week.  Which after a win, definitely should not happen.  So naturally I assumed that something was wrong with the simulation engine.

Further investigation reveals how bad this week truly was for Warren.  Prior to this week, his team scored a mean of 117.3 with a standard deviation of 14.99.  The highest and one of the most consistant teams.  After this week his mean dropped to 114.1 with a standard deviation of 17.10; still the highest but not by as much and a wider deviation.  In English what this means is that his average isn't as high above everyone else and his consitency is more in line with everyone else.  He also saw his power ranking fall almost 5% in two weeks.

As a result the simulation engine odds of winning changed significantly:

In looking at his last four game he does have a rather challenging schedule.  The next three weeks are all against teams ranked in the top 5 of power rank.  While none have out scored the TMC all three have culmative potential scores higher than them.  

The next two week also have bye weeks.  This upcoming week has six bye teams; Buffalo, Cleveland, Miami, New England, NY Jets and San Francisco.  In spite of the large number of teams it will have minimal impact on TMC points.  It takes out his backup QBs, but he wasn't going to play them anyway with DeShaun Watson back in action this week.  It does bump out his second LB, but he has someone roughly equal to replace him with.  If anything it hurts the Norsemen's defense by a point or two.  Really, these byes won't impact the odds that much.

The bigger game is week 12, when only two teams are on bye, but they are Kansas City and the LA Rams.  This will have significant impact on Warren's score with Todd Gurley, Brandin Cooks and the Rams OL out.  There just aren't the players to replace these points.  So that probably costs him a net of between 18 and 20 points.  The team he's playing that week, the MeggaMen are on average only between 5 and 10 points behind Warren.  The MeggaMen will slip points at K and maybe on defense that week, but probably not more than 4 to 7.  All that put together this game is a big risk game for the TMC.

Those are some tough games to get to 14-0.  While it certainly seems difficult and unlikely, it definitely is not impossible.  So I guess 15% seems about right.