Playoff Odds at the Midpoint

Chrisitan McCaffrey seems back to his old ways for the Norsemen, as he leads all RBs in points, yards and receptions
Published: Oct 24, 2025

Here are the playoff odds at the mid-point of the season.  Some interesting things of note.  The Amish have a two game lead of the rest of the division, but are still not the favorites to win the Gold Division.  Blatant disrespect from the AI, but likely due to their extremely high luck rating and having a record that is much better than what they are.  They are likely to regress to the mean in the second half.  

A similar thing happens in the White Division, where the MeggaMen lead the Sacks by a game but the prediction thinks it's basically a toss up for the division.  For the Toilet Bowl it thinks the Aint Nothing But a Jew Thing will ultimately pass (get passed? fall behind?) the Trump Molests Collies. 

Finally, with the number of teams at 4 wins, it doesn't really like the chances of the 3 win teams.  Of course all of that could change in a single week.

 

Burgundy Division

Team Current
Wins
Expected
Wins
Division
Odds
Norsemen 6 10.3 70.2%
Richard's Lionhearts 4 9.1 29.5%
Testudos Revenge 3 5.9 0.3%
Omar's Coming 0 1.9 < 0.1%

 

Gold Division

Team Current
Wins
Expected
Wins
Division
Odds
Amish Electricians 6 8.7 35.4%
Crusaders 4 8.8 50.3%
Gallic Warriors 4 8.1 14.2%
Trump Molests Collies 1 4.2 0.1%

 

White Division

Team Current
Wins
Expected
Wins
Division
Odds
MeggaMen 5 8.3 47.3%
Sacks on the Beach 4 8.1 48.2%
British Bulldogs 3 5.7 4.3%
Aint Nothing But a Jew Thing 2 4.3 0.1%

 

Playoff Odds

Team Playoff
Odds
Championship
Odds
Norsemen 87.2% 24.1%
Crusaders 62.9% 28.8%
Richard's Lionhearts 62.1% 22.9%
MeggaMen 52.4% 7.8%
Sacks on the Beach 50.8% 10.2%
Amish Electricians 48.7% 6.1%
Gallic Warriors 29.7% 7.5%
British Bulldogs 4.8% 0.5%
Testudos Revenge 1.2% 0.1%
Aint Nothing But A Jew Thing 0.1% < 0.1%
Trump Molests Collies 0.1% < 0.1%
Omar's Coming < 0.1% < 0.1%

 

Toilet Bowl Odds

Team Toilet Bowl
Odds
First Pick
Odds
Omar's Coming 94.9% 36.0%
Aint Nothing But a Jew Thing 51.7% 26.0%
Trump Molests Collies 42.4% 30.9%
British Bulldogs 9.4% 6.0%
Testudos Revenge 1.1% 0.6%
Gallic Warriors 0.2% 0.2%
Crusaders 0.2% 0.1%
Sacks on the Beach 0.1% 0.1%
MeggaMen 0.1% < 0.1%
Richard's Lionhearts < 0.1% < 0.1%
Amish Electricians < 0.1% < 0.1%
British Bulldogs < 0.1% < 0.1%

 

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